JONG Value v1.0

Intrinsic value, by fixed rules

A 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate where every assumption is fixed in advance and published below — the same yardstick for every stock, so the number can't be bent to fit a story. It also runs the calculation backwards: what growth is the current price already assuming? And when a company's cash stream can't support a DCF, it says so instead of printing a made-up number. A conservative floor, not a target price.

1 · Ticker

The fixed rules (v1.0)

  1. Cash stream: trailing annual free cash flow. Base = average of the last 3 years. If FCF is missing/volatile — or collapses below 60% of earnings power (a sign of one-off items) — diluted EPS is used instead and labeled.
  2. Growth: the company's realized CAGR over its available history — capped at +15%, floored at −10% — for years 1–5, then half that rate for years 6–10 (fade).
  3. Discount rate: 10% for every stock.
  4. Terminal value: year-10 cash flow × a sector-bucket multiple — ×19 asset-light compounders (software, payment networks), ×13 general, ×10 capital-intensive / regulated (autos, energy, utilities, materials). Buckets come from terminal economics, never from current market multiples.
  5. Plus net cash (cash − total debt), divided by shares outstanding.
  6. Refusals: negative or sign-flipping cash streams, fewer than 3 clean years, and banks/insurers (an FCF model doesn't fit financials) get no number — on purpose.

Educational tool. Intrinsic value is an estimate built on fixed, deliberately conservative assumptions — it will differ from other models and from the market, sometimes by a lot. The gap is the information: the reverse calculation shows what the market price assumes, and judging whether that assumption is realistic is the investor's job. Not investment advice.